Chapter 9. Trends and Progress – Leading Positive Change

10. Security Sciences and Technologies Overview

Main concept: Security sciences and technologies, aided by accelerating IT and nano science and tech, will be increasingly more naturally secure, with defensive architectures and algorithms borrowed directly from biology. Security leaders will use “biomimetic” strategies like simulations, transparency, immunity, morality, redundancy, memory, learning, antifragility, preemptive attack, and proportionate response, adapted directly from living systems, to create ever more resilient and secure technologies, organizations, and societies.

Leader’s challenge: Growing Local, Nat’l, Global Transparency and Resiliency, Bottom-Up far over Top-Down.

Summary sentence:

“Good security is like an immune system. It has transparency, memory, redundancy, fast learning, proportionate response.”

Area topics:

Reciprocal Transparency and Intelligence. Reciprocal transparency and intel involve a mix of top-down, centralized intel, sensors, drones (“surveillance”), and  bottom-up, decentralized intel (“sousveillance”). As we move to internet of things, souveillance grows fastest.  Improving both creates the best foresight, predictive analytics, scenarios, and simulations.

Immunity, Decentralization,  and Resilience. Security can be done in a top-down, centralized way (think DHS) or a bottom-up, decentralized way, empowering each state, county, city, and public (cultivation of confidential informants) to fish for their own terrorists, build their own immune systems, learn from each other. We need both, but empowering the bottom-up approach delivers a far more proportional, swarm-like response, creates more useful variety, and is more resilient. Think of the ‘spiderbots’ in Minority Report. Sensors, DRACO, quarantines, vaccines for bioterrorism. Create speedbumps for AVLIS, bioweapons, IEDs. Artificial immune systems, network transparency, “fireman’s keys” for autonomous systems. Reciprocal transparency and groupnets needed to manage coming superempowered individuals. We’ll learn from immune systems science how to create vastly more useful natural security.

Physical Security, Networks, and Openness. Physical security, dashboards, scopes, sensors, maps, biometrics, networked SALWs, networked LWs and Less-Lethal W’s, arms control, nuclear nonprolif. Riding the J-Curve of openness.

Cybersecurity and Simulations. Digital transparency, big data, next gen internet, local guarding, secure digital ID, end of anonymity and darknets, telepresence. Internat’l consortia of blue and red teams in classified world simulations, trying to break and protect security. These will be major activities of the soldiers and DoD of 2020: “Global Security Games”.

Machine Ethics and Autonomy. Drones & robots need world models, ethical architecture (Ron Arkin). We’ll use artificial selection on evolutionary robots, just like domestic animals. Teleop hub and spoke will give way to autonomous swarms, for both offense and defense.

Books: The Transparent Society, 1998; Privacy in Context, 2009; Wired for War, 2009; Antifragile, 2012.

Leadership Questions:

  1. What are your security technologies research, acquisition, R&D, hiring, training, measuring, & mgmt strategies?
  2. What key disruptions or threats must you anticipate from greater local, regional, national and global transparency, and efforts to avoid transparency?
  3. What problems could be addressed and opportunities taken if you had much better and more resilient departmental and public security technologies? How can you grow organizational and public transparency?
  4. How can you get measurably more of the most valuable security capabilities, at an efficient ROI?

As the STEEPS model reminds us, while Science and Technology are often be the fastest moving systems influencing our future, they are by no means the only important systems. The remaining EEPS factors are also often critical drivers of change. Let us briefly turn now to the last of these, the Social factors, which is also commonly called cultural foresight. Sociocultural processes are often the slowest changing of all, but they can also be the most powerful constraints on our near-term futures, as they represent the kinds of stability and change that groups presently prefer, and it is people, not our machines, that for now continue to drive most economic, political, and social change.

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Table of Contents


Chapter 2. Personal Foresight – Becoming an Effective Self-Leader

Chapter 2: Personal Foresight

Becoming an Effective Self-Leader

Chapter 4. Models – Foundations for Organizational Foresight

Chapter 4: Models

Foundations for Organizational Foresight

Chapter 7. Acceleration – Guiding Our Extraordinary Future

Chapter 7: Acceleration

Guiding Our Extraordinary Future (In Process)

II. Global Progress: 5 Goals, 10 Values, Many Trends

Innovation: Our Abundant Future
Intelligence: Our Augmented Future
Interdependence: Our Civil Future
Immunity: Our Protected Future
Sustainability: Our Rebalanced Future

III. Universal Accelerating Change

Great Race to Inner Space: Our Surprising Future
Entropy&Information: We’re Running Down & Up
The Puzzle of Meaning: We Have No Einstein Yet
Trees, Funnels & Landscapes: Intro to Evo Devo
Big Picture Change: Five Scales of Accelerating ED
Transcension Hypothesis: Where Acceleratn Ends?
IDABDAK: Social Response to Accel & Developmnt
We’re On a Runaway Train: Being Accelaware

IV. Evo Devo and Exponential Foresight

Seeing It All: Accel., Diverg, Adapt, Convrg, Decel.
Natural (I4S) Innovation: The Evolutionary Drive
Natural (I4S) Intelligence: The Human-AI Partnership
Natural (I4S) Morality: Why Empathy and Ethics Rule
Natural (I4S) Security: Strength from Disruption
Natural (I4S) Sustainability: The Developmental Drive
S-Curves: Managing the Four Constituencies
Pain to Gain: Traversing the Three Kuznets Phases
Hype to Reality: Beyond Hype Cycles to Reality Checks
Exponentials Database: Measuring Accelerations
TINA Trends: Societal Evolutionary Development
Managing Change: STEEPCOP Events, Probs, Ideas
A Great Shift: A Survival to a Sentient Economy

V. Evo Devo and Exponential Activism

Building Protopias: Five Goals of Social Progress
Normative Foresight: Ten Values of Society
Top & STEEPCOP Acceleratns: Positive & Negative
Dystopias, Risks, and Failure States
Three Levels of Activism: People, Tech & Universe
A Great Opportunity: Exponential Empowerment


Chapter 8. Your Digital Self – The Human Face of the Coming Singularity

Chapter 8: Your Digital Self

The Human Face of the Coming Singularity (In Process)

I. Your Personal AI (PAI): Your Digital Self

Digital Society: Data, Mediation, and Agents
Personal AIs: Advancing the Five Goals
PAI Innovation: Abundance and Diversity
PAI Intelligence: Bio-Inspired AI
PAI Morality: Selection and Groupnets
PAI Security: Safe Learning Agents
PAI Sustainability: Science and Balance
The Human Face of the Coming Singularity

II. PAI Protopias & Dystopias in 8 Domains

1. Personal Agents: News, Ent., Education
2. Social Agents: Relat. and Social Justice
3. Political Agents :  Activism & Represent.
4. Economic Agents:  Retail, Finance, Entrep
5. Builder Agents :  Work, Innov. & Science
6. Environ. Agents : Pop. and Sustainability
7. Health Agents :  Health, Wellness, Death
8. Security Agents :  Def., Crime, Corrections

III. PAI Activism & Exponential Empowerment

Next Government: PAIs, Groupnets, Democ.
Next Economy: Creat. Destr. & Basic Income
Next Society: PAI Ent., Mortality & Uploading
What Will Your PAI Contribution Be?

Chapter 10. Startup Ideas – Great Product & Service Challenges for Entrepreneurs

Chapter 10: Startup Ideas

Great Product and Service Challenges for Entrepreneurs (In Process)

I. 4U’s Idea Hub: Building Better Futures

Air Deliveries and Air Taxis: Finally Solving Urban Gridlock
Ballistic Shields and Gun Control: Protecting Us All from Lone Shooters
Bioinspiration Wiki: Biomimetics and Bio-Inspired Design
Brain Preservation Services: Memory and Mortality Redefined
Carcams: Document Thieves, Bad Driving, and Bad Behavior
Competition in Govt Services: Less Corruption, More Innovation
Computer Adaptive Education (CAE): Better Learning and Training
Conversational Deep Learning Devsuites: Millions of AI Coders
Digital Tables: Telepresence, Games, Entertainment & Education
Dynaships: Sustainable Low-Speed Cargo Shipping
Electromagnetic Suspension: Nausea-Free Working & Reading in Cars
Epigenetic Health Tests: Cellular Aging, Bad Diet, Body Abuse Feedback
Fireline Explosives and Ember Drones: Next-Gen Fire Control
Global English: Empowering the Next Generation of Global Youth
Greenbots: Drone Seeders and Robotic Waterers for Mass Regreening
High-Density Housing and Zoning: Making Our Cities Affordable Again
Highway Enclosures and Trail Networks: Green and Quiet Urban Space
Inflatable Packaging: Faster and Greener Shipping and Returns
Internet of Families: Connecting People Over Things
Kidcams: Next-Gen Security for Child Safety and Empowerment
Kidpods: Indoor & Outdoor Parent-Assistive Toyboxes
Microdesalination: Democratizing Sustainable Fresh Water Production
Noise Monitors: Documenting and Reducing Noise Pollution
Oceanside Baths: Sustainable Year Round Beach Enjoyment
Open Blood Scanners: DIY Citizen Health Care Sensor Tech
Open Streaming Radio: User-Centered Audio Creation and Rating
Open Streaming Video: User-Centered Video Creation and Rating
Open Values Filters: Social Rankers, Arg. Mappers, and Consensus Finders
Personal AIs: Your Private Advisor, Activist, and Interface to the World
Pet Empowerment: Next-Gen Rights and Abilities for Our Domestic Animals
Safe Closets: Fire-, Earthquake-, and Intruder-Proof Retreat Spaces
Safe Cars: Reducing Our Insane 1.3M Annual Auto Deaths Today
Safe Motorcycles: Lane Splitting in Gridlock Without Risk of Death
Shared Value Insurance: User-Centered Risk Reduction Services
Sleeperbuses and Microhotels: Demonetized Intercity Travel
Space-Based Solar Power: Stratellite Powering and Weather Management
Stratellites: Next-Gen Urban Broadband, Transparency, and Security
Touch DNA: Next-Gen Home Security and Crime Deterrence
View Towers: Improving Urban Walkability, Inspiration, and Community

Chapter 11. Evo Devo Foresight – Unpredictable and Predictable Futures

Chapter 11: Evo Devo Foresight

Unpredictable and Predictable Futures

Appendix 1. Peer Advice – Building a Successful Foresight Practice