Appendix 3. Resources – Media and Tools for Better Futures

Professional Foresight Books – A Longer List 

  1. 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World, Hugh Courtney (2001)
  2. A Brief History of the Future, Oona Strathern (2007)
  3. A Field Guide to Lies (and Statistics), Daniel Levitin (2016)
  4. Accelerate: Building Strategic Agility for a Faster-Moving World, John Kotter (2014)
  5. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter Bernstein (1998)
  6. Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, Nicholas Taleb (2014)
  7. Best Laid Plans: The Tyranny of Unintended Consequences, William A. Sherden (2011)
  8. Billion Dollar Lessons: What to Learn from Biz Failures of Last 25 Years, Paul Carroll (2009)
  9. Big Bang Disruption, Downes and Nunes (2014)
  10. Blue Ocean Strategy, Kim and Mauborgne (2015)
  11. Collaborative Intelligence: Thinking With People Who Think Differently, Markova & McArthur (2015)
  12. Competing for the Future, Hamel and Prahalad (1996)
  13. Complexity: A Guided Tour, Melanie Mitchell (2011)
  14. Cool Tools: A Catalog of Possibilities, Kevin Kelly (2013)
  15. Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for Future Orientation, Rene Rohrbeck (2010)
  16. Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind, 3rd Ed, Geert Hofstede (et al.) (2010)
  17. Cycles: The Science of Prediction, Dewey and Dakin (1947/2011)
  18. Data Points: Visualization that Means Something, Nathan Yau (2013)
  19. Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition, Everett Rogers (2003)
  20. Digital Disruption: Unleashing the Next Wave of Innovation, James McQuivey (2013)
  21. Edge Strategy, Lewis and McKone (2016)
  22. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Philip Tetlock (2006)
  23. European Foresight Monitoring Network – Final Report (PDF), Maurits Butter et al. (2009)
  24. Exponential Organizations, Salim Ismail (2014)
  25. Factors for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decision Making, Glenn and Gordon (1999)
  26. Fast Innovation, Michael George et. al. (2005)
  27. Fast Strategy, Doz and Kohonen (2008)
  28. Flash Foresight, Daniel Burrus (2011)
  29. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life & Markets, Nicholas Taleb (2005)
  30. Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners, William Ascher (1979)
  31. Forecasting and Management of Technology, 2nd Ed., Alan Porter et al. (2011)
  32. Foresight and Innovation: How Companies are Coping with the Future, Elina Hiltunen (2013)
  33. Foresight and Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region, van der Laan and Yap (2016)
  34. Foundations of Futures Studies, Vols 1-2, Wendell Bell (2010)
  35. Future Savvy: Quality in Foresight, Adam Gordon (2008)
  36. FutureThink, Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown (2005)
  37. Futures Research Methodology 3.0, Jerry Glenn and Ted Gordon, The Millennium Project (2009)
  38. Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, Ed Cornish (2005)
  39. Global Foresight Outlook, Rafael Popper et al., European Foresight Monitoring Network (2007)
  40. Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, Irving Janis (1982)
  41. Handbook of Futures Research, Jib Fowles, Ed. (1978)
  42. Hindsight: The Promise and Peril of Looking Backward, Mark Freeman (2009)
  43. How: Why How We Do Anything Means Everything, Dov Seidman (2011)
  44. How to Lie with Statistics, Darell Huff (1993)
  45. How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, Douglas Hubbard (2014)
  46. Innovation Judo: Disarming Roadblocks and Blockheads on the Path to Creativity, Neal Thornberry (2014)
  47. Innovation Tournaments: Creating and Selecting Exceptional Opportunities, Terwiesch and Ulrich (2009)
  48. Insight in Innovation: Managing by Understanding the Laws of Innovation, Jan Verloop (2004)
  49. It’s Your Future… Make it a Good One, Verne Wheelwright (2012)
  50. Jump the Curve, Jack Uldrich (2008)
  51. Jumping the Curve, Imparato and Harari (1996)
  52. Jumping the S-Curve, Nunes and Breene (2011)
  53. Keeping Abreast of Sci & Tech: Technical Intelligence for Business, Ashton & Klavans (1997)
  54. Knowing our Future: The Startling Case for Futurology, Michael Lee (2012)
  55. Leading Change, John Kotter (2012)
  56. Leading Digital: Turning Technology into Business Transformation, Westerman and Bonnet (2014)
  57. Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, Fahey & Randall, Eds (1998)
  58. Learning from the Octopus: How Nature Can Help Us Fight Terror, Diasters, Disease, Rafe Sagarin (2012)
  59. Long-Range Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong (1985)
  60. Long-Range Planning for Management, 3rd Ed., David Ewing, Ed. (1972)
  61. Looking Forward: A Guide to Futures Research, Olaf Helmer (1983)
  62. Mastering the Hype Cycle: The Right Innovation at the Right Time, Fenn and Raskino (2008)
  63. Measure What Matters: How Google, Bono, and the Gates Foundation Rock the World with OKRs, John Doerr (2018)
  64. Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data, Charles Wheelan (2014)
  65. Natural Security: A Darwinian Approach to a Dangerous World, Sagarin and Taylor (Eds.) (2008)
  66. Non-Obvious 2017: How to Think Different, Curate Ideas, and Predict the Future, Rohit Bhargava (2017)
  67. OpenIntro Statistics, 2nd Ed, David Diez (2012)
  68. Oracles: How Prediction Markets turn Employees into Visionaries, Donald N. Thompson (2012)
  69. Peripheral Vision: Detecting Weak Signals Critical to Your Company, Day & Schoemaker (2006)
  70. Predictions Ted Modis (1992) and Predictions: Ten Years Later Modis (2002)
  71. Predictive Analytics, Eric Siegel (2013)
  72. Principles of Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Ed. (2001) and
  73. Profiting from Uncertainty, Paul Schoemaker (2002)
  74. Psychology, David Myers (2011)
  75. Ready for Anything: Designing Resilience for a Transforming World, Anthony Hodgson (2012)
  76. Rebels at Work: A Handbook for Leading Change from Within, Kelly & Medina (2014)
  77. Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies, Giaoutzi and Sapio (eds) (2013)
  78. Scaling Up: Mastering the Rockerfeller Habits 2.0, Verne Harnish (2014)
  79. Scenario Planning in Organizations, Thomas Chermack (2011)
  80. Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future, Woody Wade (2012)
  81. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Kees van der Heijden (2005)
  82. Seeing What Others Don’t: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights, Gary Klein (2015)
  83. Servant Leadership, Robert Greenleaf (2002)
  84. Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, Royal Dutch Shell Scenarios Group (2005)
  85. Strategic Foresight: A New Look at Scenarios, Alfred Marcus (2009)
  86. Strategic Foresight for Corporate and Regional Development, Godet and Durance (2011)
  87. Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for Keys to Adaptive Decision Making, Gary Klein (2011)
  88. Strengths-Based Leadership, Tom Rath and Barry Conchie (2009)
  89. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2015)
  90. Systems Thinking for Curious Managers, Ackoff and Addison (2010)
  91. Teaching about the Future, Peter Bishop and Andy Hines (2012)
  92. Technology and the Future: Managing Change and Innovation, Peter von Stackelberg (2014)
  93. The 80/20 Manager: The Secret to Working Less and Achieving More, Richard Koch (2013)
  94. The 80/20 Principle: The Secret to Achieving More With Less, Richard Koch (1999)
  95. The Art of the Long View: Planning for Future in an Uncertain World, Peter Schwartz (1996)
  96. The Business Forecasting Deal, Michael Gililand (2010)
  97. The Collected What If? Eminent Historians Imagine What Might Have Been, Bob Cowley (2006)
  98. The Difference: How Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Societies, Scott Page (2008)
  99. The Employee Experience Advantage: Workplaces, Tools and Culture, Jacob Morgan (2017)
  100. The Essence of Scenarios: Learning from the Shell Experience, Wilkinson & Kupers (2014)
  101. The Evolution of Strategic Foresight in Public Policy Making, Tuomo Kuosa (2012)
  102. The Fabulous Future: America and the World in 2040, (Free PDFs) Shapiro and Morson (2015)
  103. The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix it, Douglas Hubbard (2009)
  104. The Five Futures Glasses, Pero Micic (2010)
  105. The Fortune Sellers: Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions, William Sherden (1999)
  106. The Future: A Very Short Introduction, Jennifer Gidley (2018)
  107. The Great Game of Business, Jack Stack (2013)
  108. The Image of the Future, Fred Polak (1973)
  109. The Inevitable: Understanding the Twelve Technological Forces that Will Shape Our Future, Kevin Kelly (2016)
  110. The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clayton Christensen (2011)
  111. The Goal: Ongoing Improvement and the Theory of Constraints, 4th Edition, Eliyahu Goldratt (2014)
  112. The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, Richard Slaughter (1996)
  113. The Lean Startup: Continuous Innovation for Success, Eric Ries (2011)
  114. The Lords of Strategy: Intellectual History of the New Corporate World, Walter Kiechel (2010)
  115. The Marshmallow Test: Mastering Self-Control, Walter Mischel (2015)
  116. The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload, Dan Levitin (2014)
  117. The Pattern of Expectation: 1644-2001, I.F. Clarke (1979)
  118. The Predictioneer’s Game, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (2009)
  119. The Pursuit of Destiny: A History of Prediction, Paul Halpern (2000)
  120. The Rough Guide to the Future, Jon Turney (2010).
  121. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail, But Some Don’t, Nate Silver (2012)
  122. The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Org Learning With Scenarios, Kees van der Heijden (2002)
  123. The Unbounded Mind: Breaking the Chains of Traditional Business Thinking, Ian Mitroff and Harold Linstone (1995)
  124. The Well-Timed Strategy: Mgng the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage, Navarro (2006)
  125. Theory of Constraints, Eliyahu Goldratt (1999)
  126. Think Like a Futurist, Cecily Sommers (2012)
  127. Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, Peter Bishop, Andy Hines (2007)
  128. Thinking in Systems, Donella Meadows (2008)
  129. Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman (2011)
  130. Thought and Knowledge: An Introduction to Critical Thinking, 5th Ed., Diane F. Halpern, (2013)
  131. Thrivability: Breaking Through to a World that Works, Jean M. Russell (2013)
  132. UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual, Vol 1 (Methods)  and Vol 2 (Examples), UNIDO (2005)
  133. Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development, Ulf Pillkahn (2008)
  134. Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals, Niall Ferguson (2000)
  135. Visioning, Lucia Capacchione (2000)
  136. Visualize This: Guide to Design, Visualization, and Statistics, Nathan Yau (2011)
  137. Wargaming for Leaders, Herman and Frost (2008)
  138. What Futurists Believe, Coates and Jarratt (1989)
  139. Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, Steven Johnson (2010)
  140. Wise Before the Event: 20/25 Years Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR) (PDF) (1997)
  141. Work Rules!: Insights from Inside Google to Transform How You Live and Lead, Laszlo Bock (2015).
  142. Wrong: Why Experts Keep Failing Us and When Not to Trust Them, David Freedman (2010)
  143. Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future, Peter Thiel (2014)

Personal Foresight — Select List

  1. Awaken the Giant Within, Tony Robbins (1991/2013)
  2. Be Excellent at Anything, Tony Schwartz (2011)
  3. Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth, and Impact the World, Diamandis and Kotler (2015).
  4. Crucial Conversations: Tools for Talking When Stakes are High, Kerry Patterson et al. (2011)
  5. Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less, Greg McKeown (2014)
  6. It’s Your Future … Make it a Good One!, Verne Wheelwright (2012)
  7. Living the 80/20 Way, Richard Koch (2004)
  8. Mindset: The New Psychology of Success, Carol Dweck (2007)
  9. So Good They Can’t Ignore You: Why Skills Trump Passion, Cal Newport (2012)
  10. Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, John Hammond et. al. (2002)
  11. Social Intelligence: The New Science of Human Relationships, Daniel Goleman (2007)
  12. Strengthsfinder 2.0, Tom Rath (2007)
  13. Surfing the Tsunami: An Introduction to Artificial Intelligence and Options for Responding, Todd Kelsey (2018)
  14. The Power of Habit, Charles Duhigg (2014)
  15. The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey (1989/2013)
  16. What Doesn’t Kill Us: How Extreme Environmental Conditioning Renews Our Lost Evolutionary Strength, Scott Carney (2017)
  17. What the Foresight: Your Personal Futures Explored, Alida Draudt & Julia West (2017)

Historical Foresight Analysis (HFA) — Select Sources of Historical 3Ps Foresight

HFA involves returning to older published books and media on foresight and future thinking, so we can reevaluate the predictions, possibilities, preferences, models, assumptions, values, and biases of the foresight practitioner, their organizations, and cultures at the time. Regular critical reevaluation of a subset of these historical works, and an understanding of their popularity or unpopularity with their audiences, then and now, can be a great way to improve our current foresight practice.

  1. 2020 Visions: Long View of a Changing World, Carlson & Goldman (1990)
  2. 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology, Coates, Mahaffie & Hines (1996)
  3. Anticipations: Of the Reaction of Mechanical and Scientific Progress Upon Human Life and Thought, H.G. Wells (1901)
  4. Eurofutures: The Challenges of Innovation (the FAST Report), Commission of the European Communities (1984)
  5. Looking Ahead Fifty Years, Roger W. Babson (1942)
  6. Looking Backward: 2000-1887, Edward Bellamy (1887)
  7. Memoirs of the Year Two Thousand Five Hundred, Louis-Sebastian Mercier (1772)
  8. Paris in the Twentieth Century, Jules Verne (1863)
  9. Profiles of the Future, Arthur C. Clarke (1962)
  10. Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, Royal Dutch Shell Scenarios Team (2005)
  11. The Fabulous Future: America in 2080, John Von Neumann, Fortune Magazine (Eds.) (1955)
  12. The Future of Man, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1959)
  13. The Futurists, Alvin Toffler (Ed.) (1972)
  14. The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty First Century, John Brockman (Ed.) (2002)
  15. The Next Hundred Years: The Unfinished Business of Science, Clifford Furnas (1936)
  16. The Tomorrow Makers: The Brave New World of Living-Brain Machines, Grant Fjermedal (1986)
  17. The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years, Kahn & Wiener (1968)
  18. Toward Century 21: Technology, Society and Human Values, C.S. Wallia (Ed.) (1970)
  19. Toward the Year 2018: A Dozen Leaders in Science and Tech Look 50 Years Into the Future, Foreign Policy Assn (1968)
  20. What’s Next: Exploring the New Terrain for Business, Kelly, Leyden and GBN Members (2002)

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Table of Contents


Chapter 2. Personal Foresight – Becoming an Effective Self-Leader

Chapter 2: Personal Foresight

Becoming an Effective Self-Leader

Chapter 4. Models – Foundations for Organizational Foresight

Chapter 4: Models

Foundations for Organizational Foresight

Chapter 7. Acceleration – Guiding Our Extraordinary Future

Chapter 7: Acceleration

Guiding Our Extraordinary Future (In Process)

II. Global Progress: 5 Goals, 10 Values, Many Trends

Innovation: Our Abundant Future
Intelligence: Our Augmented Future
Interdependence: Our Civil Future
Immunity: Our Protected Future
Sustainability: Our Rebalanced Future

III. Universal Accelerating Change

Great Race to Inner Space: Our Surprising Future
Entropy&Information: We’re Running Down & Up
The Puzzle of Meaning: We Have No Einstein Yet
Trees, Funnels & Landscapes: Intro to Evo Devo
Big Picture Change: Five Scales of Accelerating ED
Transcension Hypothesis: Where Acceleratn Ends?
IDABDAK: Social Response to Accel & Developmnt
We’re On a Runaway Train: Being Accelaware

IV. Evo Devo and Exponential Foresight

Seeing It All: Accel., Diverg, Adapt, Convrg, Decel.
Natural (I4S) Innovation: The Evolutionary Drive
Natural (I4S) Intelligence: The Human-AI Partnership
Natural (I4S) Morality: Why Empathy and Ethics Rule
Natural (I4S) Security: Strength from Disruption
Natural (I4S) Sustainability: The Developmental Drive
S-Curves: Managing the Four Constituencies
Pain to Gain: Traversing the Three Kuznets Phases
Hype to Reality: Beyond Hype Cycles to Reality Checks
Exponentials Database: Measuring Accelerations
TINA Trends: Societal Evolutionary Development
Managing Change: STEEPCOP Events, Probs, Ideas
A Great Shift: A Survival to a Sentient Economy

V. Evo Devo and Exponential Activism

Building Protopias: Five Goals of Social Progress
Normative Foresight: Ten Values of Society
Top & STEEPCOP Acceleratns: Positive & Negative
Dystopias, Risks, and Failure States
Three Levels of Activism: People, Tech & Universe
A Great Opportunity: Exponential Empowerment


Chapter 8. Your Digital Self – The Human Face of the Coming Singularity

Chapter 8: Your Digital Self

The Human Face of the Coming Singularity (In Process)

I. Your Personal AI (PAI): Your Digital Self

Digital Society: Data, Mediation, and Agents
Personal AIs: Advancing the Five Goals
PAI Innovation: Abundance and Diversity
PAI Intelligence: Bio-Inspired AI
PAI Morality: Selection and Groupnets
PAI Security: Safe Learning Agents
PAI Sustainability: Science and Balance
The Human Face of the Coming Singularity

II. PAI Protopias & Dystopias in 8 Domains

1. Personal Agents: News, Ent., Education
2. Social Agents: Relat. and Social Justice
3. Political Agents :  Activism & Represent.
4. Economic Agents:  Retail, Finance, Entrep
5. Builder Agents :  Work, Innov. & Science
6. Environ. Agents : Pop. and Sustainability
7. Health Agents :  Health, Wellness, Death
8. Security Agents :  Def., Crime, Corrections

III. PAI Activism & Exponential Empowerment

Next Government: PAIs, Groupnets, Democ.
Next Economy: Creat. Destr. & Basic Income
Next Society: PAI Ent., Mortality & Uploading
What Will Your PAI Contribution Be?

Chapter 10. Startup Ideas – Great Product & Service Challenges for Entrepreneurs

Chapter 10: Startup Ideas

Great Product and Service Challenges for Entrepreneurs (In Process)

I. 4U’s Idea Hub: Building Better Futures

Air Deliveries and Air Taxis: Finally Solving Urban Gridlock
Ballistic Shields and Gun Control: Protecting Us All from Lone Shooters
Bioinspiration Wiki: Biomimetics and Bio-Inspired Design
Brain Preservation Services: Memory and Mortality Redefined
Carcams: Document Thieves, Bad Driving, and Bad Behavior
Competition in Govt Services: Less Corruption, More Innovation
Computer Adaptive Education (CAE): Better Learning and Training
Conversational Deep Learning Devsuites: Millions of AI Coders
Digital Tables: Telepresence, Games, Entertainment & Education
Dynaships: Sustainable Low-Speed Cargo Shipping
Electromagnetic Suspension: Nausea-Free Working & Reading in Cars
Epigenetic Health Tests: Cellular Aging, Bad Diet, Body Abuse Feedback
Fireline Explosives and Ember Drones: Next-Gen Fire Control
Global English: Empowering the Next Generation of Global Youth
Greenbots: Drone Seeders and Robotic Waterers for Mass Regreening
High-Density Housing and Zoning: Making Our Cities Affordable Again
Highway Enclosures and Trail Networks: Green and Quiet Urban Space
Inflatable Packaging: Faster and Greener Shipping and Returns
Internet of Families: Connecting People Over Things
Kidcams: Next-Gen Security for Child Safety and Empowerment
Kidpods: Indoor & Outdoor Parent-Assistive Toyboxes
Microdesalination: Democratizing Sustainable Fresh Water Production
Noise Monitors: Documenting and Reducing Noise Pollution
Oceanside Baths: Sustainable Year Round Beach Enjoyment
Open Blood Scanners: DIY Citizen Health Care Sensor Tech
Open Streaming Radio: User-Centered Audio Creation and Rating
Open Streaming Video: User-Centered Video Creation and Rating
Open Values Filters: Social Rankers, Arg. Mappers, and Consensus Finders
Personal AIs: Your Private Advisor, Activist, and Interface to the World
Pet Empowerment: Next-Gen Rights and Abilities for Our Domestic Animals
Safe Closets: Fire-, Earthquake-, and Intruder-Proof Retreat Spaces
Safe Cars: Reducing Our Insane 1.3M Annual Auto Deaths Today
Safe Motorcycles: Lane Splitting in Gridlock Without Risk of Death
Shared Value Insurance: User-Centered Risk Reduction Services
Sleeperbuses and Microhotels: Demonetized Intercity Travel
Space-Based Solar Power: Stratellite Powering and Weather Management
Stratellites: Next-Gen Urban Broadband, Transparency, and Security
Touch DNA: Next-Gen Home Security and Crime Deterrence
View Towers: Improving Urban Walkability, Inspiration, and Community

Chapter 11. Evo Devo Foresight – Unpredictable and Predictable Futures

Chapter 11: Evo Devo Foresight

Unpredictable and Predictable Futures

Appendix 1. Peer Advice – Building a Successful Foresight Practice