Chapter 4: Models
Foundations for Organizational Foresight
I. Systems, Models and Frameworks
Statistical Surveys and Consulting
II. Category Models
1. Evolution and Development
2. Toffler’s Three Foresight Skills
3. Gallup’s Leadership Domains
4. Spreckley’s Triple Bottom Line
5. Wilber’s Integral Quadrants
6. Humphrey’s SWOT Quadrants
7. Gartner’s Market Quadrants
8. Porter’s Five Forces
1. Delphi Opinion Cycle
2. Eltville’s Five Foresight Perspectives
3. APF-Houston’s Six Strategic Foresight Activities
4. 4U’s Eight Skills of Foresight Practice
5. Kotter’s Eight Steps of Change Management
6. Shewhart’s Learning and Deming’s Quality Cycle
7. Simon’s Design Thinking Cycle
8. Boyd’s Competitive Dominance Cycle
9. Beck’s Agile Devel. & Ries’s Lean Startup Cycle
10. Learn-See-Do-Review Cycle (The Do Loop)
IV. Change Curves and Other Cycle Models
1. Dator’s Four Futures
2. Logistic Growth (S-curves)
3. Exponential Growth (E-curves)
4. Superexponential Growth (J-curves)
5. Power Law Growth (L-curves)
6. Kuznets Cycles (U-curves)
7. Life Cycles (B-curves and C-curves)
8. Hype Cycles (Growth curves with hype)
9. Economic Cycles (Boom-Bust Pendulum)
10. Inequality Cycles (Plutoc.-Democ. Pendulum)
11. Indiv, Organizatnl & Social Values (Life Cycles)
12. Generational and Social Values (Irreg. Cycles)
