Chapter 6. Methods and Frameworks - Building Adaptive Foresight Skills

IV. Further Reading in Foresight Methods

We recommend all the sources below for more detail. Some are methods- or domain-specific and some are good sources for collections of methods.

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter Bernstein (1998)
An Introduction to Technological Forecasting, Joseph P. Martino (1973)
Competing for the Future, Hamel and Prahalad (1996)
Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for Future Orientation, Rene Rohrbeck (2010)
Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition, Everett Rogers (2003)
Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners, William Ascher (1979)
Forecasting and Management of Technology, 2nd Ed., Alan Porter et al. (2011)
Foresight in Action: Developing Policy-Oriented Scenarios, Marjolein Asselt et al. (2010)
Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change, Bob Seidensticker (2006)
Future Savvy: Quality in Foresight, Adam Gordon (2008)
Futures Research Methodology 3.0, Jerry Glenn, The Millennium Project (2009)
Futures Techniques, Wikipedia (2013)
Handbook of Futures Research, Jib Fowles, Ed. (1978)
Keeping Abreast of Sci & Tech: Technical Intelligence for Business, Ashton and Klavans (1997)
Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, Fahey & Randall, Eds. (1998)
Long-Range Planning for Management, 3rd Ed., David Ewing, Ed. (1972)
Long-Range Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong (1985)
Looking Forward: A Guide to Futures Research, Olaf Helmer (1983)
Mastering the Hype Cycle: The Right Innovation at the Right Time, Fenn and Raskino (2008)
Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Tech Change, Stephen Schnaars (1989)
Predictive Analytics, Eric Siegel (2013)
Principles of Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Ed. (2001) and
Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies, Giaoutzi and Sapio (eds), (2013)
Scenario Planning in Organizations, Thomas Chermack (2011)
Strategic Foresight: A New Look at Scenarios, Alfred Marcus (2009)

Strategic Foresight: The Power of Standing in the Future, Nick Marsh et. al. (2002)
Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, 3rd Ed., Joseph P. Martino (1992)
The Art of Conjecture, Bertrand de Jouvenel, 1967/2012
The Business Forecasting Deal, Michael Gililand (2010)
The Evolution of Strategic Foresight: Navigating Public Policy Making, Tuomo Kuosa (2012)
The Fortune Sellers: Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions, William Sherden (1999)
The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Org Learning With Scenarios, Kees van der Heijden (2002)
The Well-Timed Strategy: Managing Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage, Navarro (2006)
Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, Andy Hines, Peter Bishop (2006)
UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual, Vol. 1 (Methods) and Vol. 2 (Examples), UNIDO (2005)
Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development, Ulf Pillkahn (2008)
Wargaming for Leaders, Herman and Frost, Booz Allen Hamilton (2008)

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Table of Contents


Chapter 2. Personal Foresight – Becoming an Effective Self-Leader

Chapter 2: Personal Foresight

Becoming an Effective Self-Leader

Chapter 4. Models – Foundations for Organizational Foresight

Chapter 4: Models

Foundations for Organizational Foresight

Chapter 7. Acceleration – Guiding Our Extraordinary Future

Chapter 7: Acceleration

Guiding Our Extraordinary Future (In Process)

II. Global Progress: 5 Goals, 10 Values, Many Trends

Innovation: Our Abundant Future
Intelligence: Our Augmented Future
Interdependence: Our Civil Future
Immunity: Our Protected Future
Sustainability: Our Rebalanced Future

III. Universal Accelerating Change

Great Race to Inner Space: Our Surprising Future
Entropy&Information: We’re Running Down & Up
The Puzzle of Meaning: We Have No Einstein Yet
Trees, Funnels & Landscapes: Intro to Evo Devo
Big Picture Change: Five Scales of Accelerating ED
Transcension Hypothesis: Where Acceleratn Ends?
IDABDAK: Social Response to Accel & Developmnt
We’re On a Runaway Train: Being Accelaware

IV. Evo Devo and Exponential Foresight

Seeing It All: Accel., Diverg, Adapt, Convrg, Decel.
Natural (I4S) Innovation: The Evolutionary Drive
Natural (I4S) Intelligence: The Human-AI Partnership
Natural (I4S) Morality: Why Empathy and Ethics Rule
Natural (I4S) Security: Strength from Disruption
Natural (I4S) Sustainability: The Developmental Drive
S-Curves: Managing the Four Constituencies
Pain to Gain: Traversing the Three Kuznets Phases
Hype to Reality: Beyond Hype Cycles to Reality Checks
Exponentials Database: Measuring Accelerations
TINA Trends: Societal Evolutionary Development
Managing Change: STEEPCOP Events, Probs, Ideas
A Great Shift: A Survival to a Sentient Economy

V. Evo Devo and Exponential Activism

Building Protopias: Five Goals of Social Progress
Normative Foresight: Ten Values of Society
Top & STEEPCOP Acceleratns: Positive & Negative
Dystopias, Risks, and Failure States
Three Levels of Activism: People, Tech & Universe
A Great Opportunity: Exponential Empowerment


Chapter 8. Your Digital Self – The Human Face of the Coming Singularity

Chapter 8: Your Digital Self

The Human Face of the Coming Singularity (In Process)

I. Your Personal AI (PAI): Your Digital Self

Digital Society: Data, Mediation, and Agents
Personal AIs: Advancing the Five Goals
PAI Innovation: Abundance and Diversity
PAI Intelligence: Bio-Inspired AI
PAI Morality: Selection and Groupnets
PAI Security: Safe Learning Agents
PAI Sustainability: Science and Balance
The Human Face of the Coming Singularity

II. PAI Protopias & Dystopias in 8 Domains

1. Personal Agents: News, Ent., Education
2. Social Agents: Relat. and Social Justice
3. Political Agents :  Activism & Represent.
4. Economic Agents:  Retail, Finance, Entrep
5. Builder Agents :  Work, Innov. & Science
6. Environ. Agents : Pop. and Sustainability
7. Health Agents :  Health, Wellness, Death
8. Security Agents :  Def., Crime, Corrections

III. PAI Activism & Exponential Empowerment

Next Government: PAIs, Groupnets, Democ.
Next Economy: Creat. Destr. & Basic Income
Next Society: PAI Ent., Mortality & Uploading
What Will Your PAI Contribution Be?

Chapter 10. Startup Ideas – Great Product & Service Challenges for Entrepreneurs

Chapter 10: Startup Ideas

Great Product and Service Challenges for Entrepreneurs (In Process)

I. 4U’s Idea Hub: Building Better Futures

Air Deliveries and Air Taxis: Finally Solving Urban Gridlock
Ballistic Shields and Gun Control: Protecting Us All from Lone Shooters
Bioinspiration Wiki: Biomimetics and Bio-Inspired Design
Brain Preservation Services: Memory and Mortality Redefined
Carcams: Document Thieves, Bad Driving, and Bad Behavior
Competition in Govt Services: Less Corruption, More Innovation
Computer Adaptive Education (CAE): Better Learning and Training
Conversational Deep Learning Devsuites: Millions of AI Coders
Digital Tables: Telepresence, Games, Entertainment & Education
Dynaships: Sustainable Low-Speed Cargo Shipping
Electromagnetic Suspension: Nausea-Free Working & Reading in Cars
Epigenetic Health Tests: Cellular Aging, Bad Diet, Body Abuse Feedback
Fireline Explosives and Ember Drones: Next-Gen Fire Control
Global English: Empowering the Next Generation of Global Youth
Greenbots: Drone Seeders and Robotic Waterers for Mass Regreening
High-Density Housing and Zoning: Making Our Cities Affordable Again
Highway Enclosures and Trail Networks: Green and Quiet Urban Space
Inflatable Packaging: Faster and Greener Shipping and Returns
Internet of Families: Connecting People Over Things
Kidcams: Next-Gen Security for Child Safety and Empowerment
Kidpods: Indoor & Outdoor Parent-Assistive Toyboxes
Microdesalination: Democratizing Sustainable Fresh Water Production
Noise Monitors: Documenting and Reducing Noise Pollution
Oceanside Baths: Sustainable Year Round Beach Enjoyment
Open Blood Scanners: DIY Citizen Health Care Sensor Tech
Open Streaming Radio: User-Centered Audio Creation and Rating
Open Streaming Video: User-Centered Video Creation and Rating
Open Values Filters: Social Rankers, Arg. Mappers, and Consensus Finders
Personal AIs: Your Private Advisor, Activist, and Interface to the World
Pet Empowerment: Next-Gen Rights and Abilities for Our Domestic Animals
Safe Closets: Fire-, Earthquake-, and Intruder-Proof Retreat Spaces
Safe Cars: Reducing Our Insane 1.3M Annual Auto Deaths Today
Safe Motorcycles: Lane Splitting in Gridlock Without Risk of Death
Shared Value Insurance: User-Centered Risk Reduction Services
Sleeperbuses and Microhotels: Demonetized Intercity Travel
Space-Based Solar Power: Stratellite Powering and Weather Management
Stratellites: Next-Gen Urban Broadband, Transparency, and Security
Touch DNA: Next-Gen Home Security and Crime Deterrence
View Towers: Improving Urban Walkability, Inspiration, and Community

Chapter 11. Evo Devo Foresight – Unpredictable and Predictable Futures

Chapter 11: Evo Devo Foresight

Unpredictable and Predictable Futures

Appendix 1. Peer Advice – Building a Successful Foresight Practice