Chapter 4. Models – Foundations for Organizational Foresight

2. Eltville’s Five Foresight Perspectives (Model and Framework)

The Eltville model is a sophisticated way of looking at the future developed by futurist Pero Micic, director of the Future Management Group. It has a convergent internal structure that continually ends in strategy, and so is best classified as a cyclic model. It is explained well in Micic’s The Five Futures Glasses (2010). The Eltville model helps clients build realistic expectations of the future by viewing their problem or topic of interest through five sets of analytic perspectives, starting with Assumptions, Surprises, Opportunities, Vision, and ending with Strategy.

Micic (2010)

Micic (2010)

Each is a complementary filter through which to view personal, team, and organizational futures, and each adds incremental clarity to operational uncertainty. The five steps also incorporate generally-accepted foresight methods such as Delphi, scenarios, forecasts, and environmental scanning. Including those more classic, higher-overhead foresight methods make it a process that commonly involve days to weeks, and broad senior staff input, like SWOT, when used in a corporate strategy environment. Personal or team versions can be implemented even faster when desired.  More information can be found on the Future Management Group website.

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