Welcome to
The Foresight Guide
Anticipating, Creating, and Leading in the 21st Century
By John M. Smart and the Foresight U and FERN teams
(Alpha version. Chapters 7, 8, and 10 still being written.)
This online book is the most comprehensive intro to general futures thinking and professional foresight practice available on the web.
Our Aim: To be the best Big Picture Guide to 21st Century Foresight. Championing exponential, evo-devo, and evidence-based thinking.
Good Foresight is our community’s brief (~5 min read) weekly newsletter.
We think the highest benefit of foresight is to better see and grow
“Good Futures” (values-aware progress, general adaptiveness)
in our personal lives, our organizations, and in the world, as we each
best understand them, discussing them together, today.
Events Launching in 2023. Join the Conversation!
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Intro
Chapter 1: Introduction
Our Emerging Foresight Field
Preface…
Testimonials
Acknowledgments
How to Read The Foresight Guide
I. Introduction
What is Foresight?
Why Think About The Future?
Two Questions and Four Goals of Foresight
What is the Foresight Field?
Futurists and Foresighters
Foresight Professional: A Simple Definition
Four Domains of Adaptive Foresight
Six Ps of Strategic Foresight
Eight Skills of Adaptive Foresight: The Do Loop
Twenty Specialty Practices
The 80/20 and 95/5 Rules
History Matters! Historical Foresight Analysis
Foresight Matters! Progress Opportunities Lost
A Vision of Foresight Culture
II. Key Personal Practice Challenges
1. Being Explicit, Quantitative and Scientific
2. Valuing Probabilistic Foresight
3. Seeing Hard and Soft Trends
4. Making Critical Judgments
5. Telling the Four Story Genres
6. Creating Good Progress Stories
7. Balancing Optimism, Pessimism and Realism
8. Building Strong Relationships
Foresight’s Great Myth
Foresight’s Open Secret
Do Loop: The Eight Skills of Practice
Proof Points: The Four Foresight Skills
How Large is Our Community?
What Do We Call Ourselves?
Foresight Training Options
Foresight Certifications
Foresight Courses
Primary Foresight Associations
Foresight Networks and Jobs
Personal & Organizational Foresight
Chapter 2: Personal Foresight
Becoming an Effective Self-Leader
I. Introduction to Personal Foresight
The Right Fights: The Ladder of Self-Leadership
Knowing Yourself: The Deepest Journey
Five Mindsets of Personal Foresight
Our Life Priorities: The HRVWE Success Codes
Health – Vital Cycles: Cyclic Habits for Vitality
Relationships – Attributes of Happiness
Vision – Five Goals and Ten Values
Work – Four Steps and Eight Skills
Environment – Mental and Physical Priorities
Daily Mantras – Affirmations, Priorities, Values
Emotion, Cognition, and Action: A Primal Do Loop
Intelligence – Five Basic Types
Emotional & Social Intell. – Primal Challenges
Cognitive, Tech & Envir Intell. – New Challenges
Emotional-Cognitive Biases – Seeing and Fixing
Emotional-Cognit. Diversity – A Key to Excellence
Emotional-Cognit. Behav. Therapy & Self-Therapy
Passion vs. Mastery – Competing Career Drivers
Practice and Expertise – 10,000 Hours and More
II. Trait and Strength Assessments
Hedgehogs and Foxes – Two Personality Types
Big Five Personality Traits
A Sixth Trait – Social Dominance
Myers-Briggs Type Indicator
Gallup’s StrengthsFinder
Core Leadership Skills and Traits
Gallup’s Four Leadership Domains
Adaptive Self-Leadership – Key Skills and Values
Self-Leadership Traps – The Eight Skills
III. Evo Devo Psychology
Three Universal Cognitive Styles
1. The Anticipator (Forecaster-Protector)
2. The Creative (Experimenter-Innovator)
3. The Manager (Strategist-Planner)
Universal Values Types and Sets
IV. Habits and Tools
The Power of Habits
Achievmnt Groups: Juntos, Masterminds, Fusions
Task Management and Journaling: Your Actualizer
Career Planning: Where Will You Go Next?
Chapter 3: Career Options
Great Ways to Be a Foresight Leader
Chapter 4: Models
Foundations for Organizational Foresight
I. Systems, Models and Frameworks
Statistical Surveys and Consulting
II. Category Models
1. Evolution and Development
2. Toffler’s Three Foresight Skills
3. Gallup’s Leadership Domains
4. Spreckley’s Triple Bottom Line
5. Wilber’s Integral Quadrants
6. Humphrey’s SWOT Quadrants
7. Gartner’s Market Quadrants
8. Porter’s Five Forces
1. Delphi Opinion Cycle
2. Eltville’s Five Foresight Perspectives
3. APF-Houston’s Six Strategic Foresight Activities
4. 4U’s Eight Skills of Foresight Practice
5. Kotter’s Eight Steps of Change Management
6. Shewhart’s Learning and Deming’s Quality Cycle
7. Simon’s Design Thinking Cycle
8. Boyd’s Competitive Dominance Cycle
9. Beck’s Agile Devel. & Ries’s Lean Startup Cycle
10. Learn-See-Do-Review Cycle (The Do Loop)
IV. Change Curves and Other Cycle Models
1. Dator’s Four Futures
2. Logistic Growth (S-curves)
3. Exponential Growth (E-curves)
4. Superexponential Growth (J-curves)
5. Power Law Growth (L-curves)
6. Kuznets Cycles (U-curves)
7. Life Cycles (B-curves and C-curves)
8. Hype Cycles (Growth curves with hype)
9. Economic Cycles (Boom-Bust Pendulum)
10. Inequality Cycles (Plutoc.-Democ. Pendulum)
11. Indiv, Organizatnl & Social Values (Life Cycles)
12. Generational and Social Values (Irreg. Cycles)
Chapter 5: The Do Loop
The Eight Skills of Adaptive Foresight
I. 4U’s Eight Skills of Adaptive Foresight
Skill 1. Learning – Your History and Status
Skill 2. Anticipation – Probability Foresight
Skill 3. Innovation – Possibility Foresight
Skill 4. Strategy – Preference Foresight
Skill 5. Execution – Getting Somewhere
Skill 6. Influence – Recruiting Others
Skill 7. Relating – Sustaining Your Team
Skill 8. Reviewing – Staying On Target
Chapter 6: Methods and Frameworks
Building Adaptive Foresight Skills
Global & Universal Foresight
Chapter 7: Acceleration
Guiding Our Extraordinary Future (In Process)
VUCA: A Defensive View of Change
CIBA: An Opportunistic View of Change
I4S: An Evo Devo View of Change
II. Five Global Goals and Fifteen Trends
Innovation: Our Abundant Future
Intelligence: Our Augmented Future
Interdependence: Our Civil Future
Immunity: Our Protected Future
Sustainability: Our Rebalanced Future
III. Universal Accelerating Change
Great Race to Inner Space: Our Surprising Future
Entropy&Information: We’re Running Down & Up
The Puzzle of Meaning: We Have No Einstein Yet
Trees, Funnels & Landscapes: Intro to Evo Devo
Big Picture Change: Five Scales of Accelerating ED
Transcension Hypothesis: Where Acceleratn Ends?
IDABDAK: Social Response to Accel & Developmnt
We’re On a Runaway Train: Being Accelaware
IV. Evo Devo and Exponential Foresight
Seeing It All: Accel., Diverg, Adapt, Convrg, Decel.
Natural (I4S) Innovation: The Evolutionary Drive
Natural (I4S) Intelligence: The Human-AI Partnership
Natural (I4S) Morality: Why Empathy and Ethics Rule
Natural (I4S) Security: Strength from Disruption
Natural (I4S) Sustainability: The Developmental Drive
S-Curves: Managing the Four Constituencies
Pain to Gain: Traversing the Three Kuznets Phases
Hype to Reality: Beyond Hype Cycles to Reality Checks
Exponentials Database: Measuring Accelerations
TINA Trends: Societal Evolutionary Development
Managing Change: STEEPCOP Events, Probs, Ideas
A Great Shift: A Survival to a Sentient Economy
V. Evo Devo and Exponential Activism
Building Protopias: Five Goals of Social Progress
Normative Foresight: Ten Values of Society
Top & STEEPCOP Acceleratns: Positive & Negative
Dystopias, Risks, and Failure States
Three Levels of Activism: People, Tech & Universe
A Great Opportunity: Exponential Empowerment
Chapter 8: Your Digital Self
The Human Face of the Coming Singularity (In Process)
In the meantime, you may enjoy
John’s Medium Series on Smart Agents – Your Personal Sim (2016).
John’s Medium Series on Smart Agents – Your Personal Sim (2016).
I. Your Personal AI (PAI): Your Digital Self
Digital Society: Data, Mediation, and Agents
Personal AIs: Advancing the Five Goals
PAI Innovation: Abundance and Diversity
PAI Intelligence: Bio-Inspired AI
PAI Morality: Selection and Groupnets
PAI Security: Safe Learning Agents
PAI Sustainability: Science and Balance
The Human Face of the Coming Singularity
II. PAI Protopias & Dystopias in 8 Domains
1. Personal Agents : News, Ent., Education
2. Social Agents : Relat. and Social Justice
3. Political Agents : Activism & Represent.
4. Economic Agents : Retail, Finance, Entrep
5. Builder Agents : Work, Innov. & Science
6. Environ. Agents : Pop. and Sustainability
7. Health Agents : Health, Wellness, Death
8. Security Agents : Def., Crime, Corrections
III. PAI Activism & Exponential Empowerment
Next Government: PAIs, Groupnets, Democ.
Next Economy: Creat. Destr. & Basic Income
Next Society: PAI Ent., Mortality & Uploading
What Will Your PAI Contribution Be?
Chapter 9: Trends and Progress
Leading Positive Change
I. 4U’s Futurepedia: Envisioning Social Progress
II. Sci and Tech (S&T) Foresight: Trends & Progress Visions
1. Information Sci and Technologies Overview
2. Nano Sci and Technologies Overview
3. Resource Sci and Technologies Overview
4. Engineering Sci and Technologies Overview
5. Cognitive Sci and Technologies Overview
6. Social Sci and Technologies Overview
7. Health Sci and Technologies Overview
8. Economic Sci and Technologies Overview
9. Political Sci and Technologies Overview
10. Security Sci and Technologies Overview
III. Societal (EEPS) Foresight: Trends & Progress Visions
1. Sociocultural Foresight Overview
Cultures of China and the USA: Implications for Global Leadership
IV. Progress Hindsight Collection: Major Foresight Lost
A. Global
200 BCE: A Printing Press in Ancient Greece
50 CE: A Steam Engine in Ancient Rome
1000 CE: A Norse Democracy in America
B. United States
1896: Neoslavery Defeated (Reconstruction II)
1912: A Saved Titanic (Collaborative Foresight)
1938: A Ludlow Amendment (War Referendum)
1953: No US Coup in Iran – We Ally Instead
1955: Substantially Safer Cars
1965: A Defended South Vietnam (Vietnam War)
1970: A Fully-Realized EPCOT
1991: An Accountability Doctrine (Gulf War)
1993: Tablets and eBooks at the Birth of the Web
2000: Accelerated American Broadband
2007: An Autonomy Doctrine (Iraq War)
Chapter 10: Startup Ideas
Great Product and Service Challenges for Entrepreneurs (In Process)
I. 4U’s Idea Hub: Building Better Futures
Air Deliveries and Air Taxis: Finally Solving Urban Gridlock
Ballistic Shields and Gun Control: Protecting Us All from Lone Shooters
Bioinspiration Wiki: Biomimetics and Bio-Inspired Design
Brain Preservation Services: Memory and Mortality Redefined
Carcams: Document Thieves, Bad Driving, and Bad Behavior
Competition in Govt Services: Less Corruption, More Innovation
Computer Adaptive Education (CAE): Better Learning and Training
Conversational Deep Learning Devsuites: Millions of AI Coders
Digital Tables: Telepresence, Games, Entertainment & Education
Dynaships: Sustainable Low-Speed Cargo Shipping
Electromagnetic Suspension: Nausea-Free Working & Reading in Cars
Epigenetic Health Tests: Cellular Aging, Bad Diet, Body Abuse Feedback
Fireline Explosives and Ember Drones: Next-Gen Fire Control
Global English: Empowering the Next Generation of Global Youth
Greenbots: Drone Seeders and Robotic Waterers for Mass Regreening
High-Density Housing and Zoning: Making Our Cities Affordable Again
Highway Enclosures and Trail Networks: Green and Quiet Urban Space
Inflatable Packaging: Faster and Greener Shipping and Returns
Internet of Families: Connecting People Over Things
Kidcams: Next-Gen Security for Child Safety and Empowerment
Kidpods: Indoor & Outdoor Parent-Assistive Toyboxes
Microdesalination: Democratizing Sustainable Fresh Water Production
Noise Monitors: Documenting and Reducing Noise Pollution
Oceanside Baths: Sustainable Year Round Beach Enjoyment
Open Blood Scanners: DIY Citizen Health Care Sensor Tech
Open Streaming Radio: User-Centered Audio Creation and Rating
Open Streaming Video: User-Centered Video Creation and Rating
Open Values Filters: Social Rankers, Arg. Mappers, and Consensus Finders
Personal AIs: Your Private Advisor, Activist, and Interface to the World
Pet Empowerment: Next-Gen Rights and Abilities for Our Domestic Animals
Safe Closets: Fire-, Earthquake-, and Intruder-Proof Retreat Spaces
Safe Cars: Reducing Our Insane 1.3M Annual Auto Deaths Today
Safe Motorcycles: Lane Splitting in Gridlock Without Risk of Death
Shared Value Insurance: User-Centered Risk Reduction Services
Sleeperbuses and Microhotels: Demonetized Intercity Travel
Space-Based Solar Power: Stratellite Powering and Weather Management
Stratellites: Next-Gen Urban Broadband, Transparency, and Security
Touch DNA: Next-Gen Home Security and Crime Deterrence
View Towers: Improving Urban Walkability, Inspiration, and Community
Chapter 11: Evo Devo Foresight
Unpredictable and Predictable Futures
I. Universal Evo Devo: A Model
What is Evolutionary Development?
The VCRIS Model of Natural Selection
Two Fundamental Tensions
Three Universal Processes
Four Systems of Change
Five Hierarchies of Complex Systems
Five Goals of Complex Systems
Six Schools of Social Foresight
Ten Values of Social Progress
The 95/5 Rule: Most Change Looks Evolutionary
Catalytic Catastrophes: Advancing the Five Goals
Universal Devel.: A Hidden Actor in Social Change
Portals (Funnels) and Convergent Evolution
Incompleteness: The Limits of Science & Mind
Adjacent Possible: Steam Engines to Neural Nets
Grand Questions: Purpose & Place in the Universe
Extraordinary Claims
Dangers of the Model
Benefits of the Model
Testing the Model
II. Evo Devo (Empowerment) Foresight
Seeing Both Evolution and Development
Why & What vs. How, Who, Where & When
1. Evolutionary Factors
A. Stories, Causes, and Assumptions
B. Imagin., Combinatorls, Emerg. & Divergnces
C. Uncertnties, Unkns, Opps, Wildcards & Risks
A. Associatns, Trends, Dependncs & Constraints
B. Cycles, Curves, Models, and Laws
C. Convergences, Optima, and Predictions
Four Domains of Empowerment Foresight
Practicing Empowerment Foresight with Clients
Outro
Chapter 12: Visions and Challenges
Priorities for Professionals
I. Big Foresight: Visions of Emerging Practice
Acceleration and Evo Devo Aware
Evidence-Based and Scientific
Digital
Data-Rich
Probabilistic
Collaborative
Open
Global
Popular
II. Key Community Practice Challenges
Seeing Acceleration and Development
Building Better Models and Definitions
Grounding and Validating Our Scholarship
Professionalizing and Continuing Our Training
Collaborating on Digital Foresight Platforms
Marketing Our Ever-Growing Value to Clients
III. Common Practice Biases and Mistakes
Bias Against Personal Foresight
Bias Against Probable Foresight
Extremism Bias
Hype Bias
Drama Bias
Clear View Bias
Elitism Bias
Monotrend Extrapolation Errors (MEEs)
Underspecified Model Mistakes (UMMs)
Clairvoyant Futurist
Soothsaying Futurist
Prosperity Futurist
Dogmatic Futurist
Utopian Futurist
Dystopian Futurist
Postmodernist Futurist
Scriptural Futurist
V. Reaching for Better Foresight with Our Clients
Responsible Spiritual Foresight
Life is Amazing; Spread the Word!
Appendices
Appendix 1: Peer Advice
Building a Successful Foresight Practice
Appendix 2: Leaders
Exemplary Foresight Practitioners and Organizations
II. 500 Leading Foresight Organizations – Global List
Large Companies – Foresight Leaders
Mid-Sized Companies – Foresight Leaders
Management Consultancies – Implicit Leaders
Larger Primary Foresight Consultancies
Smaller Primary Foresight Consultancies
University Research Centers & Consultancies
Foresight Specialty & Industry Membership Orgs
Foresight Education Universities & Organizations
International, Governmental & Defense Agencies
Government and Defense Contractors
Industry, Policy & Public Interest Lobbying Orgs
Internships that Can Involve Foresight
Online Employment Communities and Platforms
Appendix 3: Resources
Media and Tools for Better Futures
Our Vision: Humanity is waking up, beginning to realize its incredible exponential promise. By committing to help each other improve our personal, organizational, global, and universal foresight, we build far better futures for ourselves, our teams, and our children, day by day.
